As Nigeria inches toward another election cycle, fresh power plays are already unfolding within the ruling All Progressives Congress, (APC), and at the heart of it is the growing speculation that National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, is plotting a bid to succeed President Bola Tinubu in 2031.
Meanwhile, President Tinubu is not nursing ideas of selecting a Northern Christian as his running mate in 2027 over fears that it could backfire in the Muslim-dominated North.
Though Ribadu has not publicly declared any intention to run, many within political circles believe his moves are becoming more calculated.
His critics say he’s quietly positioning himself for the top job once President Tinubu completes a second term, should he contest and win again in 2027.
It will be recalled that former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, had earlier this year openly accused Ribadu of being behind a campaign to tarnish his image to clear the path for his own ambitions.
“Eliminating northern contenders is part of Ribadu’s strategy,” El-Rufai alleged in a February interview.
He accused the NSA of working closely with other figures, including Governor Uba Sani and anti-corruption agencies, to damage his reputation ahead of 2031.
Ribadu, however, denied the claims and insisted he had never discussed running for office with anyone.
In a strongly worded post on social media, he said his focus remains solely on national security and not on political manoeuvring.
Despite the denials, speculation continues to grow, particularly as the APC intensifies internal consultations on who should run alongside Tinubu in 2027. Many party members believe that whoever emerges as Vice President in 2027 will have a significant head start in the race to become president in 2031. This has turned what seems like a running mate decision into a fierce contest for future leadership.
In the early days following the 2023 election, some party stakeholders floated the idea that Tinubu could balance the religious ticket by choosing a Northern Christian as his running mate in the next election.
The strategy was to appeal to Christian voters in the North Central region and counter criticism of the current Muslim-Muslim ticket.
For this, a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara, a Christian, was tipped to run with Tinubu in 2027.
But those permutations may not see the light of day. According to senior APC insiders, fears of losing support in the North-West and North-East, which are majority Muslim, may make the proposition almost impossible.
“The feeling is that picking a Christian running mate from North Central may affect the party’s votes in the North West and North East, where they may vote massively for the opposition,” said a party source familiar with the discussions.
This decision appears to be rooted in the experience of the last election, where Tinubu lost the North-East to Atiku Abubakar, a native of the region.
The President only managed to win a majority in the North-West and North-Central by slim margins. The party now believes holding on to those regions is key to winning again in 2027.
