Nigeria’s food inflation rate fell to 8.89 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, the lowest level recorded in more than 14 years, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Also, headline inflation eased marginally to 15.10 per cent in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, contrary to earlier projections by analysts that inflation could climb to 19 per cent in January.
But members of the Organised Private Sector cautioned against undue excitement over the marginal decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in January, which they attributed to improved food production and stability of the exchange rate.
The latest food inflation figure marks the first single-digit reading in 128 months and the lowest since August 2011, when food inflation stood at 8.66 per cent. From June 2015, when the rate rose to 10.04 per cent, food inflation remained in double digits for 128 consecutive months until December 2025.
Data from the bureau showed that food inflation fell from 29.63 per cent in January 2025 to 8.89 per cent in January 2026, a decline of 20.73 percentage points over one year. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation contracted by 6.02 per cent in January, compared with a 0.36 per cent decline in December 2025.
The NBS attributed the slowdown to reductions in the average prices of water yams, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon, and cassava tubers.
In the report, the bureau stated, “The food inflation rate in January 2026 was 8.89 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This was 20.73 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in January 2025, which was 29.63 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in January 2026 was -6.02 per cent, down by 5.66 percentage points compared to December 2025, which was -0.36 per cent.”
On a 12-month average basis, food inflation stood at 20.29 per cent in January 2026, significantly lower than the 38.47 per cent recorded in January 2025. The moderation follows a prolonged inflation surge between 2022 and 2024. Food inflation rose from 23.75 per cent in December 2022 to 33.93 per cent in December 2023 and peaked at 40.87 per cent in June 2024.
It remained elevated at 29.63 per cent in January 2025 before easing gradually through the year, falling to 10.84 per cent in December 2025 and then to single digits in January 2026. The latest figure represents a drop of nearly 32 percentage points from the June 2024 peak.
Headline inflation
Headline inflation also eased marginally to 15.10 per cent in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, contrary to earlier projections by analysts that inflation could climb to 19 per cent in January.
The NBS said the January headline rate was 0.05 percentage points lower than the December figure. The Consumer Price Index declined to 127.4 in January from 131.2 in December, reflecting a 3.8-point decrease.
On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation was 15.10 per cent in January 2026, 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025. The latest reading is the lowest in five years and two months, since November 2020, when inflation stood at 14.89 per cent.
Month-on-month, the headline rate was negative 2.88 per cent in January, compared with 0.54 per cent in December, indicating that the average price level declined during the month.
The report noted, “The Consumer Price Index declined to 127.4 in January 2026, reflecting a 3.8-point decrease from the preceding month (131.2).
“In January 2026, the headline inflation rate eased to 15.10 per cent, down from 15.15 per cent in December 2025. Looking at the movement, the January 2026 headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.05 per cent compared to the December 2025 headline inflation rate.”
The bureau added that the percentage change in the average CPI for the 12 months ending January 2026 over the previous 12-month average was 21.97 per cent, a 4.37 percentage-point increase from the 17.59 per cent recorded in January 2025.
A breakdown showed that urban inflation stood at 15.36 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, down sharply from 29.45 per cent in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation declined by 2.72 per cent compared with 0.99 per cent in December. The corresponding 12-month average for urban inflation was 22.30 per cent.
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Rural inflation was 14.44 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, lower than the 25.04 per cent recorded in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation fell by 3.29 per cent compared with a negative 0.55 per cent in December. The 12-month average for rural inflation stood at 21.03 per cent.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 17.72 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, compared to 25.27 per cent in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, it declined by 1.69 per cent compared with 0.58 per cent in December. The 12-month average core inflation rate was 22.84 per cent, lower than the 27.24 per cent recorded in January 2025.
State-level data revealed variations across the country. Benue recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation rate at 22.48 per cent, followed by Kogi at 20.98 per cent and the Federal Capital Territory at 19.25 per cent. Ebonyi, Katsina, and Imo recorded the lowest year-on-year headline inflation rates at 8.72 per cent, 8.94 per cent, and 10.61 per cent, respectively.
On a month-on-month basis, Imo and Ondo recorded the highest increases at 1.93 per cent and 1.932 per cent respectively, while Cross River, Ogun, and Kogi posted the sharpest declines at negative 6.34 per cent, negative 6.30 per cent, and negative 6.03 per cent.
For food inflation, Kogi recorded the highest year-on-year rate at 19.84 per cent, followed by Benue at 18.38 per cent and Adamawa at 17.29 per cent, while Ebonyi, Abia, and Imo recorded the slowest increases in food prices.
The January figures indicate a broad-based easing in price pressures, driven largely by the sharp deceleration in food costs, although the elevated 12-month averages show that the impact of earlier inflation spikes is still reflected in the broader price level.
OPS speaks
Members of the Organised Private Sector cautioned against undue excitement over the marginal decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in January, which they attributed to improved food production and stability of the exchange rate.
In separate phone interviews with DECENCY GLOBAL NEWS, these stakeholders explained that despite slow inflation, the country faced a persistently high-priced market.
The National Vice President of the National Association of Small-Scale Industrialists, Kuti-George, said increased production, especially in agriculture, drove the slight moderation. He said, “The economy recorded this marginal drop due to an increase in the production of goods and industrial outposts, especially rice and cassava production.”
He added that exchange rate stability supported the trend, stating, “Another reason is the relative stability in the exchange rate. The official exchange rate is about N1 to $1,350. That is a considerable drop from the earlier high value. Generally, there has been stability due to these factors.”
Kuti-George noted that some items had recorded price reductions and expressed optimism ahead of the fasting season. “There is a drop in some items in the market. We have not heard about any pressure on food prices that usually comes during the fasting season. The impact I see is that we are set for a positive year,” the NASSI leader noted.
However, the Director-General of the National Association of Small and Medium Enterprises, Eke Ubiji, maintained that the lower inflation rate had not translated into relief for consumers. “Cost of living is very, very high. The evidence on the ground does not justify what is being put forward to the masses. Even if you carry N10,000 to the market, what are you going to buy?” Ubiji asked.
He explained with some examples: “Look at the gas you are buying before. Before you can buy 3kg of gas for 3,000 something. How much is it now? For nearly two years now, I’ve been using 6kg. I don’t use my 12kg cylinder; it’s packed up in the house. The same thing, rice. Even if you carry N10,000 to go to the market, what are you going to buy?”
The NASME DG contested that both food and non-food items remained expensive and vulnerable to further price increases. Ubiji observed, “If I use the food items that are common to everybody, there is no change. The same thing applies to non-food items. Prices are still high.”
While acknowledging that the pace of price increases may have slowed, the business leader warned the government against celebrating too early.
“I understand that the prices of items are still going to be high, but maybe they won’t be increasing at the fast pace as they used to earlier. I don’t know. The government should not think that things are getting better. By the time you know the reality, it is very late,” he said.
