The proposed opposition merger talks or collaboration may have collapsed. At least, for now, it has suffered a major setback.
The targets or anticipated partners are declining involvement and endorsement. There is no commitment to an agenda that is not clear.
Within four days, two principal opposition figures – Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) – have either disowned or dissociated themselves from the imaginary alliance being proposed by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Atiku has not reacted to the remarks by the two leaders. Neither has he repudiated the alliance, regarded as being schemed to make him presidential candidate, for the seventh time.
Kwankwaso said he is not interested in any parley with Atiku and Obi. Obi is saying he has no hand in any talk with anybody.
Political marriage could be hectic. That is really the nature of alliance talks. It can flounder midway. Politicians would weigh their chances and calculate the risks.
An alliance, politically speaking, implies a plot, particularly against the ruling party. Essentially, it is always challenging. A key factor in alliance, fusion, accord, or merger by parties is the similarity of ideas.
Another factor is the resolve to succeed. But the greatest factor is public support required to drive a sort of movement.
The question is: how similar are the ideas, focus and direction of LP and PDP, NNPP and PDP, and LP, NNPP and PDP? Can there be a graduation to a collective idea and focus?
The trio of Atiku, Kwankwaso and Obi were in PDP before. At various times, they defected, which means that they have grievances against the party. Only Atiku has been staying on in the party after retracing his steps. What new thing can suddenly bring them together? Is merely fighting the All Progressives Congress (APC) led-Federal Government enough criterion?
For now, with LP and NNPP out of calculations, only consultations with much smaller parties can be attempted in a bid to fill the huge gap.
Kwankwaso, who ruled out the prospect of collaboration and power sharing deal with Atiku and Obi cited lack of trust as his reason. He said the speculation was a ruse.
Kwankwaso also said that he was not ready to fall for the unpardonable deception and antics of the PDP, which led to the defection of many big wigs from the platform. Without mentioning names, he alleged that some politicians, who never did anything tangible for the North, are working hard to manipulate sentiments across the northern states in a desperate bid for power in 2027.
Kwankwaso even said any discussion on 2027 politics could distract the federal and state governments.
Kwankwaso recalled that the desperate and selfish agenda of certain PDP leaders forced him and Obi to leave the party.
He pointed out that a similar scenario is being re-enacted in a bid to manipulate sentiments and corner the support of the North.
More than Kwankwaso, Obi appears to be in a precarious situation. He is leaning on LP, a borrowed platform. The party is not in a position to respond to an offer of alliance. It is divided and weakened by leadership tussle.
Obidient movement, which is the main pillar and strength of Obi, has no footing in the party. Members are scattered and not coordinated. There is nothing that can actually attract them to PDP.
Besides, there is a clash of ambitions and egos. Can Atiku, who will be 81 years old in 2027, step down for Obi? Can he make the sacrifice? What would be the reaction of his followers? Can Obi accept to be Atiku’s running mate again? Would that not be infuriating to the obedients who would demand nothing less than a presidential ticket?
In the power sharing deal, what would be the place of the Kano power broker, Kwankwaso?
