✅ By Stanley Nwosu ✍️
As Nigeria marks 26 years of unbroken democracy, it is crucial to address a significant issue: the absence of recent population census data, which has been delayed by nearly a decade.
This gap has been largely responsible for the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) inability to revise electoral constituencies and reallocate legislative seats.
According to the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the latest census data is essential for determining the population quotas that guide INEC in adjusting constituencies and redistributing House of Representatives seats. This process aims to ensure nearly equal population distribution across constituencies, a fundamental principle of fair representation.
Representation is the cornerstone of democracy, and constituency delimitation is vital in a representative government. Effective delimitation fosters an inclusive government and shapes citizens’ perceptions of their representation.
The number of constituencies allocated to different groups often reflects their ‘voice’ within the democratic system.
In democratic theory, constituencies should uphold the principle of equal votes; if each vote carries the same weight, elected representatives should ideally represent an equal number of voters. When this principle is undermined by malapportionment, dissatisfaction among affected citizens is inevitable.
Most democratic constitutions mandate periodic reviews of constituencies and legislative seat allocations. These provisions are designed to guide legally designated bodies in ensuring balanced and properly apportioned constituencies. Among these guiding principles is the need for population balance.
It is troubling that, despite rapid population growth and the emergence of numerous new settlements, INEC and the National Assembly have not been able to review constituencies and reallocate legislative seats for about 29 years.
It is worrisome that in 2025, the constituency delimitation conducted by the defunct National Electoral Commission of Nigeria (NECON) in 1996, under Chief Sumner Dagogo Jack, remains in use, despite significant demographic changes.
This delimitation has been used for the general elections in 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023. The Constitution provided that the last census figures should be used for constituency delineation. However, the last census figure was that of 2006 and yet the elections from 2007 onward relied on figures from 1991 Census.
Following the 2006 Population and Housing Census, INEC established a National Advisory Committee on Delimitation of Constituencies in 2008 to address perceived imbalances in electoral constituencies.
Unfortunately, the National Assembly did not consider the committee’s report due to controversies surrounding it. Subsequent attempts to delineate constituencies based on the 2006 Census figures faltered until the data became outdated. With almost 20 years since the last census, revising constituencies using this data is inappropriate and unreliable, given Nigeria’s rapidly changing demographics. Thus, it is reasonable for INEC to await the upcoming biometric Population and Housing Census data to conduct the necessary reviews and adjustments.
According to the 2006 Census, significant distortions and discrepancies exist in the population quotas across states. Some states are poised to gain additional seats in the House of Representatives, while others may retain or lose seats based on their population figures. The goal is to ensure that representation in the House reflects the population of each state. While the Constitution mandates a fixed number of Federal Constituencies (360), the allocation of seats to each state can fluctuate according to the latest census data.
The distribution of Federal Constituency seats directly influences the number of State Constituency seats assigned to each state. The 1999 Constitution stipulates that each state should have three to four times the number of seats it holds in the House of Representatives, provided it consists of a minimum of 24 and a maximum of 40 members, while maintaining nearly equal population quotas.
Currently, some states have three times their House of Representatives seats, while others have four, and some fall within the minimum of 24 or maximum limits of 40. For some, their present number of State Assembly Constituencies is neither 3 nor 4 times the number of their House of Representatives seats.
This uneven distribution has resulted in a shortfall of 66 State Constituencies across 19 states when applying the three-times formula. For example, Anambra State, which has 11 Federal Constituencies, should have 33 State Constituencies based on the three-times option but currently has only 30. This discrepancy represents a significant injustice and under-representation.
The practice of using census data for delineating electoral constituencies in Nigeria is not new. The 1952/53 census data was used to delineate electoral constituencies in 1958 in preparation for the first direct election in 1959. At the time, 320 single-member constituencies of the House of Representatives were delineated, with the Northern Region having 174 seats, the Eastern Region 73 seats, the Western Region 62 and 3 seats for Lagos Federal Territory and 8 seats for Southern Cameroons. By the time the 1963 census figures of 55.63 million was released, the Federal Electoral Commission (FEC) conducted minor delineation and reallocated seats in the Federal House of Representatives in the build up to the 1964 Federal Election, in which the North lost 7 seats, the East lost 3 seats, while the Western Region and Lagos gained 9 seats and 1 seat respectively.
Census data was also used by the Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO) on the return to civil rule in 1979 to delineate Senatorial Districts (5 per each of the 19 States), 450 Federal Constituencies and 1,350 State Constituencies as well as by the National Electoral Commission of Nigeria (NECON) in 1996 to delineate the current 109 Senatorial District (3 seats per State plus 1 seat for the FCT), the 360 Federal Constituencies, the 991 State Constituencies, and 8,809 registration areas/wards.
Similar practices can be observed in the United States, where census data determines the distribution of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives among the 50 States and how the electoral votes are allocated for presidential elections. For instance, following the 2020 Census, there was reapportionment of seats that led to Texas State gaining additional two seats, States such as Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon gained one additional seat each, 37 States seats remain the same while the remaining 7 States – California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia lost one seat each. The U.S. Constitution mandates a census every ten years, ensuring accurate and current data for fair representation.
The long delay in reviewing and adjusting electoral constituencies in Nigeria has resulted in numerous legal challenges aimed at compelling INEC to fulfill this constitutional responsibility. Ongoing disputes surrounding ward delineations in the three Warri LGAs exemplify the pressing need for accurate census data. Reliable and current data would enable INEC to delimit wards proportionally based on population size, thereby resolving ongoing crises.
Therefore, the importance of reliable and current census data in the constituency delineation process cannot be over-emphasized. That’s why the 1999 Constitution allows INEC to revise and adjust constituencies at intervals of not less than ten years or after a national census. This provision aligns with the UN recommendation for decennial censuses, ensuring that up-to-date population data informs the delimitation exercise. So, it is crucial that the Nigerian Constitution be amended to mandate the conduct of a census every 10 years to avoid this kind of prolonged delay in conducting a census.
The other constitutional provisions for the revision and adjustment of constituencies, which are by the reason of creation of States and by an Act of the National Assembly still require acurate population data to guide INEC in the exercise.
It is gratifying to note that the next census will be biometric-based and will not only generate verifiable data of Nigeria’s population, but will also provide geo-coordinates for where everyone resides or is counted. The evidence-based statistics will guide INEC in accurately delineating constituencies, reapportioning legislative seats, creating polling units, planning elections, and managing electoral logistics.
In conclusion, the delineation of constituencies cannot occur without accurate population data from the upcoming census. It is imperative that the next census is conducted promptly, enabling INEC to revise constituencies and reapportion seats in the House of Representatives. Continuing to use the 1996 delimitation, based on 1991 census figures, for elections in 2025 would result in unfair representation and injustices for states with inadequate State Constituencies.
Ultimately, population census data is not merely a statistical exercise; it is a critical component of democratic governance, ensuring that elections are fair, representative, and effectively meet the needs of the populace. Now, that Mr. Pesident is seriously committed to the conduct of the next census, the National Assembly has pledged its unwavering support and the National Population Commission is unrelentingly ready to deliver a world-class, credible and acceptable biometric Census for national planning and sustainable development, let the date for the exercise be proclaimed as soon as practicable.
~©Stanley Onyeka Nwosu, mnipr, is a Communication Strategist, Political Economist, and Development Expert. He writes from Abuja.
